Prediksi Penjualan Kertas Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

One of the important thing in business is the inventory of goods and services. Business goal can be reached when business owner know how the number of their inventory. Printing business is using forecasting model in their purchasing raw materials to estimate and calculate their selling prediction. That model is used to minimize economic losses when the costumer canceled order because paper was ran out and to prevent paper damage does not occur date to storage that to long. Double Exponential Smoothing method is used in this research to predict the sales of Paper A and HVS A3+ paper and calculates the prediction error with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). This study aims to make an accurate forecasting application. The prediction results from application are in the form of prediction calculations for sales in the following month which will be used to optimize the purchase of paper to be sold. In applying the research results of Paper A and HVS A3 +, the best alpha was obtained in the 12th period, namely 0.3 and 0.6 with a MAPE error of 12% and 18% and an accuracy rate of 88% and 82% where the alpha was used to predict period 13 and produces a forecast value of 446 for Paper A and 474 for HVS A3 +